2006 State of the Future

The Millennium Project of the American Council for the United Nations University is a global participatory futures research think tank of futurists, scholars, business planners, and Policy makers who work for international organizations, governments, corporations, NGOs, and universities. The Millennium Project manages a coherent and cumulative process that collects and assesses judgements from its several hundred participants to produce the annual "State of the Future" - among other things.

 

The 2006 State of the Future report is just out, and the 11-page Executive Summary is surprising in many ways. For example, although we're constantly barraged by media telling us how bad things are (and yes, I'm as guilty as any) the truth is that the world is actually becoming more peaceful, healthier and prosperous.  Here are some facts:

"The first Human Security Report found that the number of armed conflicts declined by more than 40% since the early 1990s, that genocides and politicides fell 80% between 1988 and 2001, that international crises declined by more than 70% between 1981 and 2001, that the dollar value of major international arms transfers fell by 33% between 1990 and 2003, and that the number of refugees dropped by some 45% between 1992 and 2003. The IMF estimates that the world economy grew 4.8% in 2005, while the population grew 1.15%, increasing annual per capita income by 3.65%."

I was also surprised that the report recognized the fact that media focus on trivia, and the unethical behavior portrayed in our entertainment, serves to increase the noise level so that many people are not equipped to make informed and ethical decisions.  One need only look to the media frenzy around the JonBennett Ramsey case, which has no consequences of any kind for the world, while issues of vital import are ignored or paid only lip-service. How many people care more about "American Idol" than American policy?

"The combination of $1 trillion paid in government bribes, over $2 trillion income for organized crime, a proliferation of terrorism, and trivial entertainment flooding our minds with unethical behavior cries out for far more effective and ethical leadership. The increasing proliferation of media and information makes it difficult to separate the noise from the signal of what is important to know about our global situation in order to make good decisions."

There is much to ponder in this report. Although we have made progress in many ways, there are enormous challenges ahead - in fact, challenges so large that any attempt to solve them might be considered idealistic. Yet who has the best chance to find a solution - the pessimist who believes it's a waste of effort, or the idealist? 

"It has been considered ridiculous to try and achieve health and security for all people. Equally ridiculous today is thinking that one day an individual acting alone will not be able to create and use a weapon of mass destruction, or that there will not be serious pandemics as we crowd more people and animal habitats into urban concentrations while easy transborder travel exists and biodiversity is diminishing. The idealism of the welfare of one being the welfare of all could become a pragmatic long-range approach to countering terrorism, keeping airports open, and preventing destructive mass  migrations and other potential threats to human security. Ridiculing idealism is shortsighted, but idealism without the rigors of pessimism is misleading. We need very hardheaded idealists who can look into the worse and best of humanity and can create and implement strategies of success."