How Big A Threat?

Just to get some perspective on the terrorist threat, Wired Magazine took a look at mortality statistics.

Here's a handy ranking of the various dangers confronting America, based on the number of mortalities in each category throughout the 11-year period spanning 1995 through 2005 (extrapolated from best available data).

S E V E R E Driving off the road: 254,419 Falling: 146,542 Accidental poisoning: 140,327

H I G H Dying from work: 59,730 Walking down the street: 52,000. Accidentally drowning: 38,302

E L E V A T E D Killed by the flu: 19,415 Dying from a hernia: 16,742

G U A R D E D Accidental firing of a gun: 8,536 Electrocution: 5,171

L O W Being shot by law enforcement: 3,949 Terrorism: 3147 Carbon monoxide in products: 1,554

Statistically I have a better chance of being shot by Law Enforcement than being killed in a terrorist action. Interesting, but unfortunately the past doesn't predict the future threat. I wish it did.

Here's what makes me crazy. At the level that terrorists have operated at in the past, the threat is minimal to the average American. This is what makes civil libertarians get all excited, because they feel we're overreacting. Heck, we ARE overreacting based on the statistical threat. The problem is that this threat is not static. The ability of small groups to do catastrophic damage is growing every day. Governments are villified if they act based on only the possible threat; they are also villified for not acting if the threat is manifest.

When assessing the threat you must assume the worst-case scenario. Although statistically the threat is minimal, the potential threat warrents a high level of concern.